Although Donald Trump was inaugurated as the 47th president merely a month ago, maneuvering for the future beyond his administration has already begun.
On the Republican-Democratic sides of the political divide, both experienced figures and fresh faces are jockeying for position in elections nationwide. From the halls of Congress to the streets of swing states, the fight for the future has commenced.
Currently, President Trump is enjoying a “honeymoon period” of high approval ratings and national support that most newly elected leaders enjoy. However, as the legislative process slows down the agendas of many presidents, those good feelings can quickly fade with less political results than hoped for.
But, as the political tides continue to fluctuate unpredictably, it is also very possible that Trump could break this trend, especially given the fact that his most recent electoral victory was his most decisive.
To combat these potential setbacks, Trump, House Speaker Mike Johnson, and Senate Majority Leader John Thune all plan to enact the new administration’s agenda through one single bill that encompasses all of the president’s priorities.
Through a legislative process known as budget reconciliation, Republicans hope to pass stricter immigration policy, a continuation of the 2017 tax cuts, and a major reduction in federal spending all with just simple majorities in both houses.
This is only possible when one party—in this case the Republicans—controls the presidency, the House, and the Senate. It has been proven throughout recent political history that parties rarely hold this trifecta for longer than two years, so congressional leadership is moving with urgency to pass the massive bill.
Senate Republicans appear to be united in their vision of the proposal as they move their bill through the Budget Committee, but members in the House seem far more divided.
Rampant infighting plagued the previous House Republican majority of the 118th Congress, and with the party’s majority narrowing even further at the November election, nearly unanimous GOP support is required to pass any partisan legislation through the chamber.
If just three House Republicans vote no on the bill, the whole plan will be defeated. Moreover, if the process becomes divisive enough, a small faction of eight House Republicans could move to strip Speaker Johnson of his gavel, as happened to Kevin McCarthy in 2023.
Should the bill pass and be signed by President Trump, it is not a guarantee that it will be nationally popular. Some provisions could cut federal safety net programs such as Medicaid, food stamps, children’s health insurance, and others.
Trump has also proposed the abolition of the Department of Education, another policy that would have to be ratified by Congress.
Those policies would be open to scathing attack by Democrats, although Republicans would likely defend them as necessary for fiscal responsibility.
Many critics also feel that the economic effects of Trump’s tariff policies could be detrimental to markets and raise the price of everyday goods, further increasing scrutiny on the administration.
In contrast, as tariffs are one of his key platforms, Trump’s supporters believe that they will increase domestic manufacturing and shield American companies from foreign competition.
In the 2026 midterm elections, all members of the House of Representatives, one-third of the Senate, and most states’ governors will all be up for election.
Traditionally, the party of the incumbent president suffers significant losses down the ballot, as evidenced in 1994, 2006, 2010, 2014, and 2018. Elections in which that occurs are known as either “blue-wave” or “red-wave” years, and Democrats are seeking to repeat the blue wave they secured back in 2018.
Furthermore, the elections could be seen as a referendum on the first two years of Trump’s second term, and the outcome, especially in swing states, will likely set the political climate for the 2028 presidential election.
Democrats hold incumbency in the Senate seats, governors’ mansions, or both in the states of Michigan, Virginia, New Jersey, Georgia, Colorado, Kansas, Pennsylvania, Maine, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New York, and others. Each candidate will face ferocious challenges from Republicans, and billions of dollars will be poured into campaigns on both sides.
With all the seats that Democrats are defending in the 2026 cycle, there are very few opportunities for the party to gain seats from Republican incumbents.
Maine Senator Susan Collins may be vulnerable in her election, and Republicans in Georgia will nominate a new candidate to replace the term-limited Brian Kemp, but those two races are miniscule in contrast to the vast amount of seats Democrats are defending.
That means that Republicans are likely to hold the Senate majority and keep John Thune as majority leader through at least 2029.
With opportunities in Senate and gubernatorial races appearing limited, many Democrats have their eyes set on reclaiming the House of Representatives.
Under Leader Hakeem Jeffries, the party nearly won the majority in 2024, but came just three seats short. Even just a marginal swing in the party’s favor could secure them full control of the House and the election of Jeffries as the next speaker.
With a majority in the House, Democrats could block almost all of Trump’s agenda for the last two years of his term, as occurred under the Obama and Biden Administrations as well as Trump’s first.
After the midterms, all attention will turn to the 2028 presidential election. Despite President Trump’s supporters attempting to pass a constitutional amendment allowing him to seek a third term, that effort is incredibly unlikely to pass, as two-thirds of Congress and three-fourths of the states are required to ratify it. Therefore, both Republicans and Democrats will likely select new candidates to lead their respective parties.
For the GOP, Vice President JD Vance is in a strong position to become the frontrunner, but President Trump appeared to oppose Vance’s potential candidacy in a recent interview.
“[Vance] is very capable. I think you have a lot of very capable people so far,” said Trump. “He is doing a fantastic job. It’s too early.”
Other potential contenders include Donald Trump Jr, Arkansas Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, and Texas Senator Ted Cruz.
Other possible candidates could include Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum, Ambassador to the United Nations nominee Elise Stefanik, and Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin.
As occurred in 2020, it appears that the 2028 Democratic primary will be a crowded field of numerous different opinions on how to move the party forward. In preliminary polling, former Vice President Kamala Harris leads other potential opponents, but the “undecided” and “other” options lead all candidates in the polls.
Harris is also considering a 2026 run for governor of California, which could indicate her lack of interest in seeking the presidency again in 2028.
Joe Biden will also not seek the presidency again, so the Democratic field could be filled with entirely new faces to the national scene. Potential contenders include California Governor Gavin Newsom, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Arizona Senator Rubén Gallego, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, and New Jersey Senator Chris Murphy.
Other possible candidates are New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Colorado Governor Jared Polis, Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz.
As Donald Trump’s second term takes shape, the actions of his administration and the opposition responses will define the next four years and the political fate of a multitude of candidates and politicians up and down the ballot. As has been proven by the 46 administrations that preceded Trump’s, elections have consequences.